Membuat Model Kompleks ANP
- Complex models have three levels of networks:
- The main or top-level network is where the BOCR
nodes, the merits of the decision, reside. The strategic criteria also
appear in the top-level model. Their purpose is to establish the
priorities for the benefits, opportunities, costs and risks in this
decision using ratings.
- The control hierarchy networks. There are 4 such hierarchies, one
for each of the BOCR nodes. Thus there are four separate networks that
we refer to as control hierarchy networks. The structure in this network
is usually a hierarchy with two clusters: a goal cluster containing the
goal and a criterion cluster containing the criteria. They must be
pairwise compared.
- The bottom level decision subnets. There are at
least four and often more – up to 8 or 12 different networks. The
decision subnets must each contain a cluster of alternatives and the
names of the alternatives must be exactly the same in each one. You must
also create other clusters that include the factors you think apply and
connect the nodes for which you want to make judgments. Do NOT connect
nodes and leave them uncompared. The effect is to give them equal
priorities which may not be what you intended at all and that would tend
to dilute informed priorities you may have obtained through other
pairwise comparisons.
- What are the different kinds of “criteria” we are dealing with? There are three levels of networks in a strategic model and “criteria” appear in each level.
- Strategic criteria appear in the top-level main
model: These are the invariant objectives the decision-making entity
always seeks to satisfy. For an individual it might be Family, Health,
Wealth. Strategic criteria must be entered in the model after the wizard
creates the basic template for the model. However, they are used at the
end of the process in a ratings spreadsheet to evaluate the BOCR node
priorities AFTER the subnets and their judgments are finished and
synthesized for each of the BOCR.
- Control criteria appear in the second level. These are higher level,
more abstract criteria in subnets attached to each of the BOCR nodes.
They are generally evaluated in a hierarchy. They include, for example,
Environmental, Economic, Social, Political, Technological. After
pairwise comparing them to establish priorities, select the high
priority control criteria to have decision subnets built for them. You
may leave out low priority ones. You need to select enough control
criteria to have their priorities sum to at least 70%.
- Criteria in the decision subnets appear in the
third level. These are factors in the networks in the bottom level
decision subnets that are not alternatives. We use the generic word
criteria to include all the nodes including stakeholders, time periods
and other concepts.
- Use the Wizard to generate the framework for your complex decision model (File menu>Open>New).
- Enter
your control criteria and your alternatives. Modify the control
criteria hierarchies to fit your model. Disconnect the goal node from
the BOCR nodes in the main model. Make a cluster of strategic criteria
and attach those to the goal node (in preparation for the ratings
spreadsheet where you will evaluate the BOCR priorities). You may
pairwise compare them at any time and build the ratings spreadsheet, but
you must not enter the ratings until you have finished the bottom part
of the model and determined the highest priority alternatives for
Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks.
- Complete your decision subnets in the third level by adding clusters of relevant factors.
- You should probably not use the identical
structure in each decision subnet – fine-tune it to the type of decision
subnet that it is. For example, if it is economic benefits you should
put in factors that relate to that idea.
- Do not have “Sink” clusters. Clusters which have
arrows pointing to them, but none pointing out are a waste of your time.
The pairwise comparisons you make on the nodes in that cluster have no
effect on the model. Priority flows around the paths in the model like
water. It ultimately needs to get to the alternatives.
- Making Judgments.
When you make connections in 3rd level decision subnets make sure the
comparisons make sense. Can you formulate a question for each pairwise
comparison? You should usually connect a node to at least two other
nodes (usually in another cluster).
- The same parent or source node may be connected
to children nodes in more than one cluster. It is usually not good
practice to connect a node to just one other node. There is no way to
enter judgments as there is nothing to pairwise comparison. The priority
of the parent node just passes directly to the child node. The software
will do it okay, but it does not add useful information to your model.
- Make the cluster comparison judgments. When making judgments be sure
to make the cluster comparison judgments. Use the shortcut A<B to
launch the cluster comparisons. The software will walk you through the
necessary comparisons. The comparative question to be answered is: Which
of two clusters impacts the parent cluster (of the comparison) more
with respect to Economic Benefits (or whatever decision subnet you are
in).
- Do not make connections and then fail to make
judgments. This will result in the positive information being input that
all the factors in the resulting comparisons are equal – not the same
thing at all as making no links. Unintentionally saying two nodes are
equal may dilute actual knowledge you have put in during other
comparisons.
- Sanity Check.
Use the Computations>Sanity check command to find out if you have
forgotten to do comparisons of nodes or clusters. Click on the buttons
to the right to get details about where the problem lies.
- What about repeating node names, for example, Economic?
The software treats nodes in separate networks that have the same name
as different entities – except for the nodes in the Alternatives
cluster. The nodes are usually conceptually different. For example,
Economic as a strategic criterion in the top level network means
“economic well-being”. As a control criterion in a control hierarchy it
may mean “economic issues”. Finally, you may also have “economic” or
some variation of that as a factor in several decision subnets and it
may have subtly different meanings in each one.
- Formulas. The
additive negative is the default formula that the wizard will use. You
can easily change the formula under the Design command. You should
synthesize the model in two ways: the additive negative formula and the
multiplicative formula. The additive negative formula may result in some
alternatives having a negative value (red bars) in the synthesized
answer. The multiplicative formula never gives negative results.
- Sensitivity.
Make sure the additive negative formula is selected when you do
sensitivity on any of the BOCR nodes. It is not possible to do
sensitivity under the multiplicative formula – the distinguishing
factors cancel each other out.
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