The Super Decisions software is used for decision-making with
dependence and feedback. It implements the Analytic Hierarchy Process,
AHP, and the Analytic Network Process, ANP. Both use the same
fundamental prioritization process based on deriving priorities by
making judgments on pairs of elements, or obtaining priorities by
normalizing direct measurements. In the AHP the decision elements are
arranged in a hierarchic decision structure from the goal to the
criteria to the alternatives of choice, while in the ANP the decision
elements are grouped in clusters, one of which contains the
alternatives, which the others contain the criteria, or stakeholders or
other decision elements.
In the ANP there is not a specific goal
element, rather the priorities are determined in a relative framework of
influences and the prioritization of the alternatives is implicitly
understood to be with respect to whatever the network is about: the
decision concern. The clusters are arranged into a network with links
among the elements, or sometimes into multiple tiers of elements such as
when a problem is decomposed into Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and
Risks. Most decision-making methods including the AHP assume
independence: between the criteria and the alternatives, or among the
criteria or among the alternatives. The ANP is not limited by such
assumptions. It allows for all possible and potential dependencies.
The ANP does not limit human understanding and experience to force
decision-making into a highly technical model that is unnatural and
contrived. It is in essence a formalization of how people usually think,
and it helps the decision-maker keep track of the process as the
complexity of the problem and the diversity of its factors increase. The
best testimony of the power and success of the ANP are those
applications that have been done that derived priorities that
corresponded with known answers in the real world or that have predicted
outcomes. From that perspective it is a reliable and objective approach
for making decisions based on priorities and importance with which one
has had experience. It is rather different than making guesses about the
probabilities of occurrence as some decision-making methods would have
you do.
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